US Presidential Election: Harris vs. Trump

Recently, the situation of the U.S. presidential election has become increasingly noteworthy. Democratic candidate Harris and Republican candidate Trump have engaged in fierce competition on multiple fronts.

Debate Performance and Market Reaction

On September 10, Harris and Trump faced off for the first time in a televised debate. This debate is seen as a critical juncture before the election and could have a significant impact on the election outcome. Observers generally believe that Harris's performance exceeded expectations, while Trump's was relatively lackluster.

After the debate, the betting market reacted quickly. Within just two hours, the contract price for Harris's election rose from $53 to $57, while the contract price for Trump's election fell from $52 to $47. This change indicates that the market's assessment of Harris's chances of winning has improved.

In the debate, Harris performed exceptionally well on multiple issues. She demonstrated an understanding of female voters on the abortion issue, shared personal experiences on racial issues, and emphasized future development plans. In contrast, Trump primarily focused on traditional topics such as illegal immigration, tariff policies, and fossil fuel supply, which may struggle to attract centrist voters.

Campaign office遭遇枪击事件

On September 24, Harris's campaign office in Arizona was shot at. There were four bullet holes in the glass door and windows of the office. No one was inside the office at the time of the incident, and there were no casualties. The police initially determined that this was a property crime.

There are different interpretations of this event in the market. Some believe it may be a retaliatory action by Trump supporters, while others suspect that it is a self-directed performance by Harris's team, aimed at diverting public attention or shaping a victim image.

Campaign Funding and Expenditures

The latest federal filing documents show that Harris and her campaign team's daily expenses far exceed those of the Trump campaign. The Harris team's average daily expenditure in August reached $7.5 million, while the Trump campaign spent $2.6 million, a difference of $4.9 million.

In fundraising, Harris is also ahead of Trump. By the end of August, Harris's team had raised a total of $404 million, while Trump's team had raised $295 million. This additional funding will be used to expand the campaign team, increase advertising spending, and conduct more voter outreach activities.

Harris's Advantages and Controversies

Harris, as the Democratic vice-presidential candidate, has multiple identity advantages: a minority background, an immigrant family background, her identity as a woman, a degree from a prestigious university, a professional lawyer, and being the first female district attorney of California. These traits make her appealing to various voter demographics.

However, Harris's political career has also been controversial. Some of her decisions while serving as a prosecutor have been criticized, including her handling of certain cases. In addition, her campaign strategies and some of her political positions have also sparked controversy.

Comparison of Policy Proposals

Currently, Harris is slightly leading Trump by 1.6% in the polls. Among the confirmed electoral votes, Harris has approximately 226 votes, while Trump has about 219 votes. To win, Harris needs an additional 44 electoral votes, while Trump needs 51.

The policy positions of the two candidates show clear differences. Harris tends to subsidize residents through fiscal expansion, which may lead to an increase in debt issuance in the short term, unfavorable for bond assets, but could support the dollar. Her tax increase policy may put pressure on the US stock market. Trump's policies are relatively favorable for the US stock market, cyclical commodities, and Bitcoin, but may have an intervention effect on the dollar.

In the next two months, there are still variables in the election situation. The U.S. presidential election uses the "Electoral College system," so the popular vote does not directly determine the final result. Currently, the election situation in several swing states is more intense than in previous years, which will be a key factor in determining the outcome of the election.