It seems we are really entering a Bear Market, at what price should we Auto-Invest in BTC? This question has been asked a lot recently.

The market is in turmoil, and information is everywhere. I plan to take this time to clarify the core logic so that everyone doesn't lose sight of the direction at critical moments.

First, let's mention an important signal: the world's second-largest single-position institution - that crazy coin-hoarding MicroStrategy, now holds approximately 649,000 BTC. What does that mean? It's close to half of Satoshi Nakamoto's holdings. Their average cost is around $76,000, and the current coin price is around $90,000, still showing a solid profit. The judgment of large funds is often closer to the truth than the panic of retail investors.

The AHR999 accumulation indicator has dropped to around 0.58. Those who understand know that this is very close to the real bottom range. From a valuation perspective, the gap between Bitcoin's price and market enthusiasm is rapidly narrowing.

In the past month or so, the entire cryptocurrency market has evaporated $1.2 trillion in market value. Is there still someone holding on to the illusion that "as long as the weekly line doesn't break 76,000, it's a bullish structure"? That's too optimistic. This round of movement has drawn a clear arc top, and the monthly level divergence is already there.

Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset - it is a barometer of global fiat liquidity. Gold, US stocks, Bitcoin, and commodities are all consolidating at high levels; which market can hold out indefinitely? The release of liquidity is just a matter of time.

Why is this round moving faster than before? Supply is decreasing, but macro variables are more complex. The crash in the first quarter of 2025, with liquidity tightening combined with expectations of Trump's policies, had many people focusing only on "political noise," neglecting that liquidity is the root cause. From April to August, the warming of interest rate cut expectations combined with the cooling of political news pushed the bull market up. But after September, the liquidity issue could no longer be hidden; it became the dominant force again.

Finally, let's talk about the question everyone is most concerned about: where is the bottom of the Bear Market?

From a technical perspective, the main support levels are at 85k, 75k, and 60k. However, the more solid bottom is at the mining machine shutdown price—approximately between 60,000 and 65,000 dollars. That would be the traditional golden Auto-Invest zone, providing the best cost-performance ratio for bottom fishing. However, this price level is unlikely to be seen in the short term, and we may have to wait until 2026 for an opportunity.