Trader: After shorting ETH and making $580,000, I feel optimistic about the market.

Organization & Compilation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Speaker: Taiki Maeda

Podcast Source: Taiki Maeda

Original title: I Made $578,000 Shorting ETH. What I’m Doing Next.

Release Date: November 26, 2025

Key Summary

After just two months of trading in a bear market, Taiki Maeda earned $578,000 through short selling. In this podcast episode, he provides an in-depth analysis of the potential trends in the cryptocurrency market over the coming months and advises investors to prioritize capital preservation rather than chasing high returns. Additionally, he shares his strategies involving stablecoins and airdrop mining that he is currently engaged in, offering listeners more practical investment ideas.

Highlights of Insights

• For the past two months, I have been shorting ETH. I shorted 1 million dollars worth of ETH at around 4150 dollars and made some profit; then, I added another 1.5 million dollars in shorts at 3387 dollars. My total profit over the past two months is approximately 578,000 dollars.
• Why did I choose to take profits at this time? I still believe that the price of ETH may decline further, but my short target is for ETH to reach 3000.
• Why did I previously bearish on ETH? If the altcoin market has already “collapsed”, this impact will transmit to ETH, as the sluggish state of altcoins cannot support ETH's valuation above 500 billion dollars.
• I believe ETH has flaws, and unless the situation changes, as a cryptocurrency investor, you can completely ignore ETH as an investment target in the next 5 to 10 years.
• If you can overcome the psychological barrier of not considering ETH investments, I believe it will make your decision-making much simpler, while also reducing your stress levels and possibly even extending your lifespan.
• I believe we will not experience a bear market lasting up to 12 months, but are more likely in the second month of a bear market lasting from 3 to 6 months; this is my optimistic assessment of the market.
• On November 17, I mentioned that the market might be entering the denial (denial) phase. The market is expected to experience another wave of decline, which may occur this week or in two months, after which the market will begin to form a range, ultimately welcoming a better market environment in 2026.
• Altcoins will lose any significance as the fair value of these assets is nearly zero.
• The market is trying to find the fair value of ETH, and the price may stabilize around $2500. The Ponzi effect once drove up the price of ETH, but this effect is now gradually fading.
• If ETH falls below $3000, it may drag Bitcoin down with it.
• The biggest risk for most people is their inability to leave the market; being able to control one's investment impulses is an advantage. The current cryptocurrency market resembles a “loser's game,” where most people just keep losing money, so the best way to win is not to participate.
• The current market environment is in Hard Mode ( and Player vs Player ) mode. The best strategy may be to maintain a cash position and accumulate funds.
• It's time to slow down, accumulate quality assets, and focus on airdrop mining (airdrop farm).
• Even if you have recently experienced losses, do not give up easily; persist and believe in yourself.

( close my ETH short position

Taiki Maeda:

In the past two months, I shorted Ethereum (ETH) and altcoins, making over $570,000. In this video, I will share my views on the current market and why I believe that the situation for ETH and altcoins is still very, very difficult.

I have closed my short position on ETH. I have been shorting ETH for the past two months. I once shorted 1 million USD of ETH at around 4150 USD and made some profit; then I added another 1.5 million USD short position at 3387 USD. At that time, my position P\u0026L ) was about 268,000 USD, and I closed it last Friday. Calculating that way, my total profit over the past two months is about 578,000 USD. Additionally, as a player focused on yield and airdrop mining, I am also participating in Variational, which I believe is a very promising perpetual contract platform.

So why did I choose to take profits at this time?

The main reason is that I still believe the price of ETH may decline further, and I will elaborate on this later. However, when I started shorting ETH around $4150, my target was to wait for it to drop below $3000. Now, it has indeed fallen below that price point, and I believe I have captured the easiest part of this market trend to profit from. In the past two months, shorting ETH and some altcoins has indeed been very easy; just holding the short position not only earns funding fees but also benefits from the price decline. However, now I feel that the risks and rewards in the market have become balanced, so I have decided to** reduce my position****, slow down my trading pace, remain on the sidelines, and enter a mode to preserve my principal.**

ETH has fundamental flaws

Taiki Maeda:

I am not intentionally being picky; I have no opinion on the Ethereum mainnet. I like using the ETH mainnet and L2s. ETH has indeed done a lot of good things, but as an asset, I do think it has some fundamental flaws. Unless circumstances change, as a cryptocurrency investor, you can completely ignore ETH as an investment target in the next 5 to 10 years. It is fine to short or go long on ETH as a trading tool, but from a long-term investment perspective, ETH does not have a sound investment rationale. The market performance over the past 5 years has proven that ETH's performance has consistently fallen short of expectations. Aside from the so-called “Hopium” ( and “Copium” ), there is no strong reason that can change ETH's performance trajectory as an asset.

I compare buying ETH to the experience of touching a hot stove when I was a child. You think, “Wow, that hurts, I got a blister, I will never touch a hot stove again.” Through this experience, you learn not to touch the hot stove again. And ETH is like that hot stove, but people keep going back to touch it over and over again because they feel, “This is Ethereum; I must hold it.” In fact, no one is forcing you to own ETH. Many people seem to think that ETH is an indispensable asset in cryptocurrency, but I don't believe that. If you can overcome the psychological barrier of not considering ETH investments, I believe it will make your decision-making easier, while also reducing your stress levels, and may even extend your lifespan.

Why bearish on ETH

Taiki Maeda:

I believe that the current market performance is basically in line with expectations. Even if you have a bullish outlook on ETH, it is necessary to understand the bearish perspective, because if you only focus on bullish information, you might be caught off guard when the market turns. I recommend maintaining a balanced approach to information gathering, listening to both the bulls and paying attention to the bears' analysis, so that you can make more informed decisions. After all, in the end, everyone needs to be accountable for their financial decisions.

Regarding the bearish logic of ETH, I mentioned it in October last year. At that time, I predicted that people would see the liquidation event on October 10 as the starting point of the ETHbear market. Although this view was quite controversial at the time, October 10 was indeed an important juncture as it revealed the lack of fundamental value in many crypto assets, and the value of altcoins began to decline significantly. Nowadays, there is not much reason to hold altcoins. If the altcoin market has already “collapsed”, this impact will transmit to ETH, as the sluggish state of altcoins cannot support ETH's valuation above 500 billion dollars.

On October 10, I predicted two things:

1. DeFi****TVL will decrease. Due to some hacking incidents and the decline in investor confidence in on-chain altcoins, TVL may decrease, while the price of ETH will also fall.
2. The growth of stablecoin supply is slowing down. The growth of stablecoin supply usually comes from yield opportunities on-chain. However, when people stop buying altcoins, the yield on stablecoins drops rapidly, and the risk-return on-chain deteriorates accordingly. As yields decline, deposits in DeFi projects decrease and withdrawals increase, further exacerbating market pressures.

As a growth asset, ETH has a value of approximately $360 billion, so there needs to be corresponding indicators to support this valuation. However, the market capitalization of ETH is about $357 billion, but its annual income is only $300 million, making its market cap over 1000 times its annual income. According to the valuation standards of technology platforms, the valuation of ETH is clearly too high, and the current indicators have not been able to prove this.

The total locked amount of DeFi ( TVL ) shows a double top pattern, and the situation is not optimistic. For a growth asset, its indicators should continue to rise rather than show signs of peaking. The market value of stablecoins also seems to be nearing a peak, as I have mentioned before, future growth may slow down. It is expected that in the next 12 months, the annual growth of stablecoins may drop to between 30 billion and 40 billion, or even as low as 20 billion. If these key indicators cannot continue to grow, then the valuation of ETH appears to be overvalued.

This phenomenon can be explained by the negative feedback effect (negative reflexivity). In the cryptocurrency market, a price drop not only reduces buyers but also attracts more sellers, because a price drop usually indicates a deterioration of the on-chain fundamentals, and the deterioration of the fundamentals further drives down prices; this cycle leads to a collapse of investor confidence. When asset prices fall by more than 30%, the belief of most cryptocurrency holders collapses, ultimately leading them to choose to sell their assets, accelerating further downward movement in the market.

four-year cycle

Taiki Maeda:

Most crypto assets have no cash flow, so they trade mainly around narratives, speculation, and beliefs, and price drops can stifle these things.

If you ask me, I don't fully believe in Bitcoin's four-year cycle; this pattern will eventually be broken, and this time might be the moment it breaks. However, I do believe that the four-year cycle of Ethereum and altcoins will repeat, and I have staked my reputation on this, because these assets themselves have almost no economic value.

I proposed the concepts of “time decay” and “belief decay”: if investors expect a rise in the fourth quarter (Q4 pump), but see no rise over time, people's belief in this rise will gradually fade. Ultimately, holding altcoins will lose any meaning, as the fair value of these assets is almost zero.

I still hold a very bearish outlook on ETH. I find that many people are buying those severely overvalued “utterly worthless concepts” (vaporware), and their reasoning is simply that “the fourth quarter is always bullish.” So I believe that if there is no rise in the fourth quarter, these investors will be flushed out of the market. I have observed that there are far more marginal sellers than marginal buyers in the market, so I choose to short. It now seems that most of these sellers have already been eliminated by the market.

DAT Bubble Burst

Taiki Maeda:

Currently, the market is entering a bottoming phase, which may last for several months. I believe we will not experience a bear market lasting up to 12 months, but rather we are likely in the 2nd month of a 3 to 6 month bear market, which is my optimistic assessment of the market.

I believe that one of the important factors exacerbating the market downturn is DATs, or “Digital Asset Treasury Companies” (Digital Asset Treasury Companies) bubble burst. David Bailey's attitude seems to be lacking rigor, and there was even a typo in the 10Q document. The prices of these assets once rose from $1 to $30, then to $50, ultimately leading to severe capital losses.

Taking MicroStrategy's MNAV ( net asset value multiple ) as an example, the multiple at that time was close to 1, indicating that the market's speculative demand for leveraged Bitcoin is decreasing. From the trend of MNAV, the situation is similar to the market from 2021 to 2022, which was not suitable for bullish positions in cryptocurrency. Today, the market is experiencing a negative feedback effect. According to Bloomberg, MicroStrategy may be kicked out of Nasdaq, which is a serious blow to them. At the same time, I believe that most other DATs are also struggling to maintain.

Speaking of ETH, Tom Lee's ETH digital asset trust company Bitmine announced its establishment on June 30, when the price of ETH was around $2500. Subsequently, the price of ETH rose from $2500 to $4900, nearly doubling, and now the market is retracing this surge. They continue to purchase ETH at an average cost of around $4000, with a total purchase amount reaching $10 billion. This presents an excellent exit opportunity for ETH holders, while it is a good entry point for short sellers.

Currently, the market is trying to find the fair value of ETH. My intuition is that the price will fall further, but it might stabilize around 2500 dollars, as the cost of building DATs is between 2000 and 2500 dollars. The Ponzi effect once drove up the price of ETH, and now this effect is gradually fading.

Where is the bottom?

Taiki Maeda:

I am not overly pessimistic, but I do believe the market is close to the bottom. While I do not have a particularly clear view on Bitcoin's trend, the market structure for ETH and altcoins remains severe. Their valuations are still high, while the fundamental indicators show no signs of growth. Value buyers will not easily intervene until the market finds a true bottom.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall demand for cryptocurrencies is currently declining. On one hand, due to investors' surrender sentiment and the early consumption of a large amount of demand by DATs, the market's purchasing power has significantly weakened; on the other hand, the supply of cryptocurrencies is continuously increasing, including new initial coin offerings (ICOs), more token releases, unlocks for teams and investors, and token emissions. Reduced demand and increased supply ultimately lead to price declines. This is also why the prices of ETH, Solana, and other L1s are falling, as the market is trying to find a reasonable fair value for these assets while the bubble has burst.

There are usually two main reasons for purchasing cryptocurrencies: one is momentum trading( buying high and selling higher in a bull market, without considering valuation), and the other is buying undervalued assets### based on valuation(. However, neither of these purchasing reasons holds true now. Market momentum has clearly stalled, the performance of DATs has been poor, and prices remain weak. If we observe L1s, L2s, and DeFi projects, their prices have not entered the value area. This is why I believe market prices may continue to fluctuate and trend lower.

My bearish logic is that if ETH breaks below $3000, it may drag Bitcoin down with it. As long as we maintain a rational analysis of the market, valuation, and indicators, prices are likely to continue to oscillate lower. I predicted on October 30 that the price of ETH would break below $3000 and find a bottom in the $2000 range, even briefly dipping below $2000. I still stand by this judgment, although ETH may not have bottomed yet, the market may need a few months to set new lows. I believe we are still in a downward phase of the market.

I'm not sure whether the market is currently in the fourth or fifth phase. Over the past two months, I believe we have been in the fourth phase, during which large-scale liquidation events have occurred. Each time positive news emerges, the market reacts quickly in reverse, leading to severe losses for those going long. If you are optimistic about the market, perhaps we have entered a sluggish phase, and it may consolidate sideways for three to four months in the future. However, in any case, the current market environment is not suitable for taking on too much risk. I think we are closer to the bottom than to the top.

On November 17, I mentioned that the market may be entering the denial )denial( phase. I expect the market will experience another wave of decline, which may occur this week or in two months, after which the market will begin to form a range, ultimately welcoming a better market environment in 2026.

Cryptocurrencies do not have cash flow, and their trading relies more on investor sentiment and human behavior. When I shorted ETH and altcoins in October and November, I was countering the market consensus of a “fourth-quarter rally.” Now the market consensus has turned into a “12-month bear market,” should I counter this view and start buying? My answer is that if prices fall further, I would consider starting to buy. I believe that cryptocurrencies will experience a K-shaped recovery (referring to the divergence between quality assets and poor assets) in the future; Bitcoin and some tokens with buyback mechanisms may recover, but most tokens may have already completely disappeared and will never recover. I suggest that investors carefully examine their holdings and ask themselves, “Do the coins I hold have the potential for recovery?” The answer is likely to be no, so it would be wise to sell them decisively.

) Investment portfolio and the projects I am focusing on

Taiki Maeda:

I want to talk about my investment portfolio and the strategies currently being implemented. The market may still drop further, but even so, we still have a few months to choose to buy at low prices, so I will not adopt a high-risk investment model.

In investing, preserving capital and achieving profits are equally important. The real altcoin season is waiting for lower prices to buy in. If you can avoid a 20% shrinkage in your portfolio, the effect is the same as capturing a 25% increase. In reality, bear markets are the best time to make money; you just need to buy in at low prices and then relax on vacation.

For many people, the biggest risk is the inability to leave the market. Currently, liquidity in the cryptocurrency ecosystem is gradually diminishing, and now may not be the best time to participate in this market. Being able to control one's investment impulses is an advantage. The current cryptocurrency market resembles a “loser's game”, where most people just keep losing money, so the best way to win is not to participate or simply to wait and see.

The cryptocurrency market is losing liquidity, much like a leaking bucket. Attempting to extract liquidity from the market is undoubtedly going against market trends. The current **market environment is in difficulty mode (Hard Mode) and player versus player (PVP) mode, the best strategy may be to maintain cash positions and accumulate funds, **seasoned investors in the market are competing for limited resources.

I think now is the time to slow down, accumulate quality assets, and focus on airdrop mining ###airdrop farm(. This is also my goal, and currently my portfolio is almost 100% cash ) excluding illiquid positions (.

I am currently paying attention to Variational, Lighter, USDi, Tyro, and Poly Market. The points for Lighter are currently worth $80, and I was lucky to obtain these points, which is more a result of luck than skill. Variational might also be a project worth focusing on. As more and more people exit the cryptocurrency market, this is good news for investors like us, as the competition will decrease. The best opportunities for making a profit often arise when the market is generally sluggish. I believe that for retail investors, the main reliable way to earn cryptocurrency is not simply by buying or trading, but through airdrops, as new tokens are often issued at very high valuations.

I also participated in the mining of USDi, and my earnings have decreased somewhat, but I am still earning 8.5% returns and points on stablecoins. I have invested over 500,000 dollars and have earned 10,000 dollars so far, while also obtaining points for future token generation events. Stablecoin mining is a relatively reliable strategy as long as due diligence is done. I also participated in Tyro, which is a project on the Injective chain and also an instance of Kraken Layer 2. This project has lower risk, and although the returns are not high, points can still be earned. As for Poly Market, my performance has been poor, and I lost 20,000 dollars on war miles.

) final words of encouragement

Taiki Maeda：

Many people praise me as the “Japanese GCR” and even call me an “Asian quantitative trader.” But to be honest, when I released a video in August this year, I felt like I had been eliminated from the market, and during that time I felt very frustrated with myself.

What I want to say is, even if you have recently experienced losses, do not give up easily; you must persevere and believe in yourself. There will always be winners and losers in the market, and what we can do is to increase our chances of becoming winners through hard work and perseverance. The market is not that simple; to succeed, you need to put in more effort and surpass your competitors.

Even when feeling frustrated, quickly forget past failures and focus on the future. The cryptocurrency market rewards persistent investors; as long as you can manage risks, you won't fall into complete failure. The market is currently entering a bottoming phase, although there may still be a wave of decline, overall, we are closer to the bottom than the top. Therefore, perhaps now is the time to start gradually increasing risk exposure.

That said, I still feel concerned. I want to be bullish, but there isn't enough reason for me to make a large-scale buy at the moment. However, if the market experiences the next wave of declines, I will consider bidding on assets like Bitcoin and Hyperliquid. To catch the lows, you must stay alert when people are being liquidated; to seize the opportunity, you must act decisively when people lose confidence in cryptocurrencies, such as participating in Hyperliquid.

The key is to seize new opportunities in the market while maintaining patience and perseverance. I hope the purpose of this video is not merely to vent dissatisfaction towards ETH, but to remind everyone that now is not the time to be overly bearish, but rather a moment to remain optimistic about the future. I have a bullish outlook on the market and believe I can buy quality assets at lower prices.