Stable TGE tonight, what could the fully diluted valuation reach?

Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News

At 21:00 Beijing time on December 8, the Stable mainnet will officially launch. Stable, a Layer 1 blockchain supported by Bitfinex and Tether, focuses on stablecoin infrastructure. Its core design is to use USDT as the native gas fee, enabling sub-second settlement and gas-free peer-to-peer transfers. As of press time, Bitget, Backpack, and Bybit have announced that they will list STABLE spot trading. In addition, Binance, Coinbase, and Korean exchanges have not yet announced the listing of STABLE spot trading.

Total Supply of 100 Billion, Token Not Used for Gas Fees

The project team has released the whitepaper and tokenomics details ahead of the mainnet launch. The native token STABLE has a total fixed supply of 100 billion tokens. Transfers, payments, and transactions on the Stable network are settled in USDT. STABLE is not used as a gas fee but serves as an incentive mechanism to coordinate developers and ecosystem participants. STABLE token allocation: Genesis Distribution accounts for 10% of the total supply, supporting early liquidity, community activation, ecosystem activities, and strategic distribution. The genesis portion will be fully unlocked at mainnet launch.

Ecosystem and community account for 40% of the total supply, allocated to developer grants, liquidity programs, partnerships, community initiatives, and ecosystem development; the team accounts for 25% of the total supply, allocated to founding team, engineers, researchers, and contributors; investors and advisors account for 25% of the total supply, allocated to strategic investors and advisors who support network development, infrastructure, and promotion.

Team and investor allocations have a one-year cliff, with zero unlocking in the first 12 months and then linear release. Ecosystem and community funds unlock 8% at launch, with the rest released gradually through linear vesting, used to incentivize developers, partners, and user growth.

Stable uses its StableBFT consensus protocol and adopts a DPoS (Delegated Proof of Stake) model. This design maintains the economic security features required for a global payment network while supporting high-throughput settlement. Staking STABLE tokens is the mechanism for validators and delegators to participate in consensus and earn rewards. The main roles of the STABLE token are governance and staking: holders can stake tokens to become validators, participate in network security, and influence protocol upgrades through DAO voting, such as adjusting fee rates or introducing support for new stablecoins.

In addition, STABLE can be used for ecosystem incentives, such as liquidity mining or cross-chain bridge rewards. The project claims that this separation design can attract institutional funds, as USDT’s stability is much higher than volatile governance tokens.

Pre-Deposit Controversy: Insider Trading and KYC Delays

Like Plasma, Stable also opened two rounds of deposits before mainnet launch. The first phase of pre-deposit started at the end of October with a cap of $825 million, which was filled within minutes after the announcement. The community questioned possible insider trading. The top-ranked wallet deposited hundreds of millions of USDT 23 minutes before the deposit window opened.

The project did not respond directly and started the second phase of pre-deposit on November 6, capped at $500 million.

However, Stable still underestimated the enthusiasm for market deposits. When the second phase opened, a massive influx of traffic caused their website to slow down. As a result, Stable updated the rules, allowing users to deposit through the Hourglass frontend or directly on-chain; the deposit function was reopened for 24 hours, with each wallet allowed to deposit up to $1 million and a minimum deposit of $1,000.

The total deposits in the second phase reached about $1.8 billion, with around 26,000 participating wallets.

Review times ranged from several days to a week, with some community users complaining about system lag or repeated requests for additional materials.

85% Probability of $2 Billion FDV

At the end of July this year, Stable announced the completion of a $28 million seed round led by Bitfinex and Hack VC, with a market valuation of around $300 million.

For comparison, Plasma’s current market cap is $330 million, with an FDV of $1.675 billion.

Some optimists believe that the stablecoin narrative, Bitfinex’s backing, and Plasma’s initial surge may mean there’s still some hype and room for price growth in the near term. However, pessimism is stronger: with gas not paid in STABLE, utility is limited—especially as the market has entered a bear cycle and liquidity is tight, which could cause the token price to fall quickly.

Currently, Polymarket data shows that the probability of its FDV exceeding $2 billion after the first day of launch is 85%. Based on a conservative $2 billion valuation, the STABLE token price would be $0.02.

In the perpetual contract market, according to Bitget, STABLE/USDT is currently quoted at $0.032, implying its FDV may rise to around $3 billion.

Stable’s first phase of pre-deposits reached $825 million, the second phase contributed over $1.1 billion, but after proportional allocation, only $500 million actually entered the pool. The total pre-deposit scale is $1.325 billion. Tokenomics disclose an initial allocation of 10% (for pre-deposit incentives, exchange activities, initial on-chain liquidity, etc.). Assuming Stable ultimately airdrops 3%-7% of the supply to pre-depositors, at the pre-market price of $0.032, the corresponding yield is about 7% to 16.9%, meaning every $10,000 deposit corresponds to $700 to $1,690.