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Macroeconomists: Fiat currency is in decline, and the dollar has received almost no "safe-haven buying."
According to Gate News bot, CoinTelegraph reports that macroeconomist Lyn Alden stated that despite the recent escalation of geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, the US dollar has seen almost no "safe-haven buying."
Real Vision cryptocurrency analyst Jamie Coutts also expressed a similar view, stating that "fiat currency is in decline." According to data from TradingView, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the dollar against major world currencies, is at its lowest point since February 2022.
Currently, tensions have approached the levels seen on June 13, when they first escalated after Israel launched airstrikes against Iran.
In this case, market participants typically expect investors to shift from higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies to safer options like the US dollar or government bonds. In October 2024, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack on targets across Israel, causing the dollar index to soar by 2.67% that month.
Although the dollar did not surge in the recent conflicts, Bitcoin experienced volatility.
On Sunday, the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000, marking the first time since early May. However, since the fragile ceasefire agreement by U.S. President Donald Trump took effect on Monday, the price of Bitcoin has rebounded, trading above $107,000.
Cryptocurrency analyst Matthew Hyland ( stated, "Bulls are in control," while others pointed out that despite recent safe-haven conditions, Bitcoin still shows strong resilience.
Cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital said on Wednesday: "Bitcoin has broken two two-week downtrends in the past month."
Coutts from Real Vision compares the current macro environment to the early 21st century, when a weak dollar led to capital flowing into emerging markets and commodities.
Coutts stated: "If you remember, from 2002 to 2008, the last significant depreciation of the dollar triggered a collapse in emerging market stocks and commodities."
He stated: "As capital chases high growth in younger economies, the performance of emerging markets is three times that of developed markets, giving rise to the BRICS countries."
He added that emerging markets are cryptocurrency: "Cryptocurrency is today's emerging market. Capital is flowing to where energy is located."