[BTC & ETH] ❤️Morning Update on September 19❤️ The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates! Bitcoin rebounds strongly, and Ethereum rises along with it. 📊 Historic interest rate cut implemented! The Federal Reserve has lowered rates by 25 basis points as expected, bringing new momentum to the crypto market. 📈 BTC Market Overview ( as of September 19, 2025 ) Current BTC Price: $117,348 📊 Today's change: +0.76% ( +880 USD ) 📈 ETH Market Overview ( as of September 19, 2025 ) Current ETH price: $4,600 📊 Today's change: +0.17% ( +8 USD ) The historic interest rate cut decision by the Federal Reserve has landed as expected! Last night Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced a reduction of the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%. This is the first rate cut since last December, officially starting a new round of easing cycle. Bitcoin rebounded strongly from $116,468 to $117,348 under the stimulus of the rate cut news, with an increase of 0.76%, successfully stabilizing at the $117,000 mark. Ethereum also warmed up, rising from $4,593 to $4,600, with an increase of 0.17%, showing signs of following suit. 🔍 Latest market driver analysis 1. The Federal Reserve's rate cut has landed as expected, with Powell's cautious statement paving the way for further easing. 🎯Details of the interest rate cut policy: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, in line with the market's conservative rate cut pace. Powell described this rate cut as a "risk management measure", focusing on addressing the weak labor market. The dot plot indicates that there will be two more rate cuts by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points, totaling 75 basis points of easing. The Federal Open Market Committee has differing views on further rate cuts in 2025, adopting a gradual meeting decision-making approach. The policy outlook is becoming clearer: Powell emphasized that the downward pressure on employment risks is increasing, while the risk of inflation is tilted upward. Higher tariffs have begun to push up commodity prices, but the weak labor market remains the main concern. Market pricing shows that there is still room for a 50 basis point rate cut within the year, establishing a loosening cycle that will provide strong support for the crypto ecosystem. 2. ETF capital inflows hit record highs, institutional confidence continues to grow. 📈 BTC ETF performs well: On September 17, the net inflow of the spot Bitcoin ETF was $642 million, marking the fifth consecutive day of positive inflows. This week, the cumulative inflow of Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $1 billion, achieving the strongest performance since July. BlackRock's IBIT leads the way, attracting most of the new funds, demonstrating that institutional giants continue to increase their stakes. The total holdings of ETFs have reached a new high, and market confidence has significantly rebounded. ETH ETF capital inflow: The Ethereum ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $405 million, reversing the previous trend of continuous outflows. Institutional recognition of the value of Ethereum's allocation is gradually increasing, and there is a positive change in the capital situation compared to the first month of net outflows in September, the ETF shows a clear improvement. 3. Technical analysis: BTC breaks through key resistance, ETH stabilizes and rebounds. 🚀BTC shows strong technical performance: successfully breaking through the key resistance level of $117,000, recovering previous losses with a daily candlestick forming a medium bullish line, and bullish sentiment clearly warming up. The RSI indicator has rebounded from the oversold area, the technical situation has been repaired, and the MACD indicator has re-crossed golden cross, confirming the mid-term upward trend. The next target resistance level is in the $118,000-$119,000 area. ETH's technical situation has stabilized and rebounded: bouncing from the low of $4,429 to above $4,600, showing effective support. Compared to BTC, performance has improved, and the ETH/BTC ratio has stopped declining and stabilized. After breaking through $4,600, it is expected to challenge the resistance levels of $4,700-$4,800. The technical situation repair lays the foundation for further upward movement. 4. Market sentiment is neutral and balanced, with the fear and greed index remaining stable. 📊 Interpretation of Sentiment Indicators: The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index remains at a neutral level of 51, unchanged from yesterday and up from last week's fear level of 47, indicating a gradual improvement in market sentiment. The market is balancing out following the Federal Reserve's decision, with no extreme greed or fear emotions observed. Investors are maintaining a cautiously optimistic attitude, awaiting further policy signals. Capital characteristics: The cryptocurrency market capitalization has reached $4.08 trillion, with a week-on-week growth of 3.56%. BTC reserves on exchanges continue to decline, easing supply-side pressure. The supply of stablecoins remains high, providing ample liquidity for subsequent rises. Institutional-level large holders are continuously increasing their holdings, with on-chain data showing active accumulation behavior. 5. The macro environment is turning favorable, and expectations for improved liquidity are strengthening. 🌟US stock market performance: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices experienced a slight pullback after the rate cut, but overall maintained a high level of stability in tech stocks, providing emotional support for the crypto market. Market confidence in further rate cuts has strengthened, and risk appetite is gradually recovering. The dollar's performance is favorable: the dollar index weakened after the rate cut, providing technical support for Bitcoin. Gold prices have retreated from historical highs, and funds are beginning to seek new hedging tools. Global central bank easing expectations are rising, and the liquidity environment has fundamentally improved, establishing a trend. 6. The altcoin market is following suit, with a rotation effect of funds becoming apparent. 💰Sector performance diverges: mainstream cryptocurrencies generally rise under the stimulus of interest rate cuts. Layer 1 public chain tokens begin to become active, and ecological value is gaining renewed attention. The DeFi sector follows the rise of ETH and shows an uptick in investment, with funds starting to flow back into AI, GameFi, and other conceptual sectors, leading to a resurgence in market activity. ⚙️ Technical Analysis Update 🔻 BTC Support and Resistance Level Analysis: Support Levels: First Support Level: $116,500 ( intraday pullback support ) Second Support Level: $116,000 ( key technical support ) Third Support Level: $115,500 ( strong support zone ) Key Support Level: $115,000 ( important psychological level ) Resistance Levels: First Resistance Level: $117,800 ( short-term target level ) Second Resistance Level: $118,500 ( important technical resistance ) Third Resistance Level: $119,000 ( strong resistance zone ) Key Resistance Level: $120,000 ( new historical high target ) 🔺 ETH Support and Resistance Analysis: Support Levels: First Support Level: $4,550 ( Intraday Support ) Second Support Level: $4,500 ( Important Technical Support ) Third Support Level: $4,430 ( Today's Low Support ) Key Support Level: $4,350 ( Key Psychological Level ) Resistance Levels: First Resistance Level: $4,650 ( Short-term Resistance ) Second Resistance Level: $4,750 ( Important Technical Resistance ) Third Resistance Level: $4,850 ( Previous High ) Strong Resistance: $4,950 ( Yearly High Area ) 🧭 Trend Prediction and Probability Analysis BTC Price Prediction: Interest Rate Cuts Favor Continued Upward Scenario ( Probability 65% ) 📈 The target for the rise is $118,500 - $120,000. Trigger factors include confirmation of the Federal Reserve's easing policy, continuous inflow of ETF funds, and technical breakout confirmation in the context of high-level consolidation. ( probability 25% ) ⚖️ The range of 116,500 - 118,000 USD is triggered by factors such as short-term profit-taking, waiting for further policy signals, and technical adjustments to digest the gains. ( Probability 10% ) 📉 Pullback target 115,500 - 116,500 USD triggering factors "buy the expectation, sell the fact" sentiment, short-term overbought pullback, external risk events ETH Price Prediction: Follow-up Rebound Scenario ( Probability 60% ) 📈 Rebound target $4,750 - $4,900 trigger factors BTC driving effect, accelerated ETF fund inflow, moderate increase in ecological value reassessment scenario ( probability 30% ) ⚖️ The upward range of $4,600 - $4,750 is triggered by relatively improved performance, capital rotation effects, and technical adjustments in the consolidation scenario ( probability 10% ) 📉 The adjustment target of $4,450 - $4,600 is triggered by relatively weak continuation, profit-taking pressure, and intensified market differentiation. 💡 Operation Suggestions 🎯 BTC Trading Strategy ( Recommendation Index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐) Actively bullish on interest rate cuts, buy on dips above $117,000, target $118,500-$120,000. 🎯 ETH Trading Strategy ( Recommended Index: ⭐⭐⭐⭐) After stabilizing at $4,600, you can actively go long, targeting $4,750-$4,900. 📅 Market Outlook Key focus in the near term is on the subsequent statements from Federal Reserve officials, with market expectations for further interest rate cuts changing. The mid-term trend establishes a loosening cycle, and improved liquidity provides fundamental support for the crypto market. Trading focus: After breaking through $118,000, increase the long positions. Keep an eye on ETF fund flows. Risk Reminder: The short-term increase has been significant, so be cautious of technical corrections and profit-taking pressure. Long-term view: The interest rate cut cycle has begun, and digital assets are entering a new upward channel. It is recommended to accumulate quality targets on dips. 🎊 Special Attention: The era of interest rate cuts has officially begun, and a new cycle in the crypto market is starting! The Federal Reserve's historic interest rate cut decision has successfully landed! The moderate 25 basis point cut meets market expectations and leaves room for further easing in the future. Bitcoin has successfully broken through the resistance level of $117,000 under the favorable stimulus of the rate cut, with both technical and fundamental factors supporting further upward movement. Although Ethereum's increase is relatively moderate, the trend of stabilization and recovery is clear, and it is expected to welcome a rebound in the rotation of funds. From a policy perspective, Powell's cautious statements reserve space for future rate cuts, and the dot plot indicates expectations for another 50 basis points cut by the end of the year. On the funding side, the continuous strong inflow into ETFs shows that institutional confidence is solid, with Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion this week, setting a new record. Technically, Bitcoin's successful breakthrough of key resistance shows that bulls are regaining control. The establishment of a loosening cycle provides strong fundamental support for digital assets. With the fundamental improvement of the liquidity environment, investors are advised to seize this historic opportunity and actively position themselves after confirming the technical breakout. The coming weeks will be a key window period for the crypto market, likely to herald the start of a new round of bull market!

Since mid-September, Ethereum (ETH) has shown a stepped rising channel pattern on the daily chart. Currently, the ETH price is in the key range of $4,550 to $4,580, which is not only the upper band support level of the channel but also an important support conversion area after the previous breakout. From the technical perspective of the 4-hour chart, although there has not yet been a clear top divergence signal, investors still need to remain vigilant. If, during the price rise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to reach a new high in sync, this may indicate a possible pullback in the short term. For trading strategies, it is recommended to consider entering the market in the range of 4,560-4,580 USD, with the initial upward target focusing on 4,650 USD, and further looking towards 4,800 USD. However, investors should closely monitor market movements and adjust their strategies in a timely manner to respond to potential fluctuations. It is worth noting that recent market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve possibly restarting its rate-cutting cycle are also affecting the trends in the cryptocurrency market. Investors need to weigh the potential impact of macroeconomic factors on the price of ETH and remain cautious and rational when making investment decisions.

0919 trading opportunity😊😊