#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 #CryptoMarketsRiseBroadly
Solana Smart Money Pattern
SOL USD price is trading slightly above $84 on April 1st, returning to its early March level; it has been exhibiting a sideways performance for the past 30 days.
Although no direction is clearly visible, key indicators on the 8-hour chart point to a similar setup to the one that formed before Solana's 21% rise in early March. However, whether this movement will be repeated depends on the strong selling zone located directly above it.
Smart Money and Relative Strength Index (RSI) Point to a Possible Repetition
The head-and-shoulders formation in which Solana price is squeezed on the 8-hour chart has been in effect since the end of February. The head rose to $97.75. The right shoulder is still forming; the price is currently trading near the lower part of the structure.
However, the Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the positions of informed traders, approached the signal line again on March 31st. A similar movement occurred between March 8-10. After the SMI broke above the signal line on March 10th, Solana's price gained 21.59% in the following six sessions (until March 16th).
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator measuring the speed of price changes, adds a new dimension to the picture. Between February 28th and March 31st, while the price formed a higher low, the RSI formed a lower low. This hidden bullish divergence on the 8-hour chart is usually a harbinger of a price rebound. A rebound of approximately 6% has already occurred, and as mentioned above, it has brought with it smart money flow.
However, this rebound does not alone signify an uptrend for SOL. To truly speak of a repeat of early March, a confirmed upward breakout of the SMI is necessary. Without such a signal, this rise risks fading quickly, especially considering the strong resistance in the upper selling zone.
A Cluster of 37.7 Million SOL Creates a Barrier Between $85 and $88
The cost base distribution heatmap shows three consecutive strong sell clusters between $85.31 and $88.22. Since this is an area with large SOL purchases, investors who bought at this level may consider selling near their cost basis.
The first cluster is between $85.31 and $86.27 and contains approximately 14.34 million SOL. The second cluster is between $86.27 and $87.24 and contains approximately 12.76 million SOL.
The third cluster is between $87.24 and $88.22 and contains approximately 10.62 million SOL. In total, approximately 37.7 million SOL is located just above the current price, within a narrow $3 range.
Every dollar pushed up in this region risks being exposed to selling pressure from investors who have already reached their cost basis. Solana cannot sustain an upward move without absorbing this supply. If groups remain strong and sellers suppress buyers, the rally could end before reaching the critical technical resistance area.
Solana faces a risk of falling to $64 if it fails to reclaim the critical level.
The 8-hour SOL price chart serves as a roadmap for these levels. A close above $84.95 on the 8-hour chart would test the first cost cluster. A break above $87.38 would indicate that the second cluster is no longer held by sellers.
The critical resistance zone is at $89.82. A sustained close here would mean all three cost clusters have been absorbed. It would also confirm the SMI breakout scenario and lead to the head of the formation at $97.75, the level that triggers all indicators of an uptrend. Beyond this point, the bearish structure would become completely invalid.
On the other hand, if $84.95 is not reclaimed, it would mean that even the nearest cost cluster has been broken up before the cost level, indicating the start of selling. Such weakness would bring $81.47 to the forefront, followed by the neckline of the head and shoulders formation at $78.77. Below $78.77, a moderate drop of approximately 18.46% is triggered, targeting $64.19.
In conclusion, the current level of $89.82 forms the line between a momentum that would carry the upward movement from early March to $97.75 and a weak scenario where the head-and-shoulders formation breaks down, targeting $64.19.
$SOL