XRP Price Prediction: Bearish Triangle Showdown with a 2.5 Buy Wall, Experts Reveal Breakthrough Direction and Key Get on Board Points

Ripple (XRP) is at a critical technical crossroads, with prices hovering around $2.77, forming a clear descending triangle pattern. Since mid-July, sellers have continuously limited upward momentum at lower highs, while buyers have firmly held the $2.70 support area. More notably, on-chain data shows a strong buy wall in the $2.45-2.55 range, which could be a key factor in determining XRP's future trend. Amidst accelerating institutional fund inflows and changes in the macroeconomic environment, is XRP about to experience a breakout? This article delves into technical patterns, on-chain data, and market catalysts to provide investors with precise trading strategies.

Technical Analysis: Descending Triangle Indicates Major Breakthrough

(Source: Trading View)

XRP's current technical formation shows a typical descending triangle, which often indicates that the market is about to experience significant volatility.

· Key Price Levels

Resistance level:

2.97 USD (50 day simple moving average)

3.25 USD (breakthrough trigger point)

3.43 USD (first target after breakout)

3.66 USD (second target after breakout)

Support level:

2.70 USD (instant bottom)

2.45-2.55 USD (on-chain buy wall)

$2.26 (further support)

· Technical Indicator Signals

The current RSI indicator hovers around 40, indicating weakening momentum but has not yet entered the oversold territory. The performance of this technical indicator corresponds with the descending triangle formed by the price, further confirming that the market is in a state of building up momentum.

The candlestick chart shows a long lower shadow near the support level, indicating that despite the obvious selling pressure, buyers are still actively accumulating positions. This silent accumulation pattern is typically a precursor to a reversal signal.

On-chain data: Strong buy wall provides key support

On-chain data analysis provides deep market insights that traditional technical analysis cannot capture.

· Buyer wall in the $2.45-2.55 range

Data shows that there is a significant concentration of buy orders between 2.45 USD and 2.55 USD. This on-chain buy wall indicates that if the price drops to this range, a large amount of liquidity may trigger a strong rebound.

Market research company Sistine Research pointed out that the current liquidity compression of XRP is the weakest since the end of 2024. Historically, once this liquidity compression is released, it often triggers significant price fluctuations.

· Liquidity Analysis

On-chain data also shows that the liquidity pool of XRP is experiencing significant changes:

1. The holding ratio of large holders (whales) remains stable.

2. The outflow volume from the exchange has recently increased, which is usually seen as a bullish signal.

3. The number of active addresses has increased by 12% in the past two weeks, indicating a rise in user participation.

These on-chain indicators collectively suggest that, despite the price pattern leaning bearish, the market fundamentals may be quietly improving.

Institutional Catalysts: ETF Development and Market Sentiment

In addition to technical and on-chain factors, the development of institutional products is also shaping the market outlook for XRP.

The REX/Osprey XRPR ETF has attracted $38 million in trading volume, indicating that institutional investor interest in XRP is growing. Although it is still smaller in scale compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, this represents an important step in the institutionalization process of XRP.

More significantly, Franklin Templeton's XRP ETF application is expected to reach a decision in November. Analysts generally believe that if approved, this will significantly enhance the market legitimacy of XRP and may attract more institutional funds.

Market data shows that whenever a cryptocurrency ETF is approved, the related assets typically experience significant price pumps. The approval of the XRP ETF could become a key catalyst for breaking the current descending triangle.

Macroeconomic Environment: Changes in Liquidity and Market Sentiment

Macroeconomic factors are also affecting the price performance of XRP, especially against the backdrop of recent market volatility.

Recently, the cryptocurrency market has undergone significant adjustments:

· 22 billion USD in cryptocurrency options expire

· 1.5 billion dollars in market liquidation

· Bitcoin dropped below $110,000

· Ethereum dropped to a 7-week low

· XRP fell 2.9% at the same time, to 2.74 USD

This type of market-wide adjustment indicates that the downward pressure on XRP partly stems from overall market sentiment, rather than being limited to changes in XRP's own fundamentals.

Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity Outlook

U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data remains flat, which strengthens market expectations for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates later this year. This could provide liquidity support for risk assets like XRP, becoming a potential bullish factor.

Historical data shows that a loose monetary policy environment is usually favorable for cryptocurrency prices. If the Federal Reserve does indeed lower interest rates further before the end of the year, it may provide upward momentum for XRP, helping it break through the current descending triangle.

Trading Strategy: How to Respond to the Upcoming Breakthrough

Based on technical analysis, on-chain data, and market catalysts, here are strategy recommendations for different types of investors:

· Short-term Trader Strategy

Bullish Breakout Strategy:

Entry point: Confirm breakout after 3.25 USD

Stop loss level: below 3.00 USD

Target price: $3.43 (first target), $3.66 (second target)

Bearish breakout strategy:

Entry point: Confirm after breaking below $2.70

Stop-loss level: above 2.80 USD

Target price: $2.48 (first target), $2.26 (second target)

· Long-term Investor Strategy

For long-term investors, any pullback towards the buyer wall at 2.45-2.55 USD could present an excellent entry opportunity, especially considering the backdrop of accelerating institutional fund inflows.

A batch building strategy may be more suitable, for example:

30% position near $2.70

40% position in the $2.50-2.55 range

30% position at $2.45 or lower

Risk Factors: Potential Threats to Watch Out For

Despite the presence of multiple bullish factors, investors still need to be cautious of the following risks:

Regulatory uncertainty: The SEC's changing stance on cryptocurrency may affect the price of XRP.

Overall market risk: Further declines in Bitcoin and Ethereum may drag down XRP.

ETF decision delayed: If the Franklin Templeton ETF application is delayed or rejected, it may impact market sentiment.

Technical breakthrough failure: If the price continues to consolidate within the descending triangle, it may lead to further reduction in volatility.

Conclusion: The key moment for XRP has arrived

XRP is currently at a critical intersection of technical and fundamental factors. The compression of the descending triangle indicates that the price is about to experience a significant breakout, while the on-chain buyer wall in the 2.45-2.55 dollar range provides potential strong support.

As institutional participation increases and the macro environment changes, the fate of XRP will depend on the clash of these two forces: the technical pressure of the bearish triangle and the support of the on-chain buyer wall.

Currently, the market capitalization of XRP is $166.5 billion, ranking fourth on CoinMarketCap. Regardless of the final breakout direction, the price action in the coming weeks may set the tone for XRP's major trend by the end of the year.

Investors should closely monitor the key price levels of $3.25 and $2.70, as a breakout from either could trigger significant price volatility. At the same time, ETF-related news and macroeconomic data will also be important factors influencing XRP prices.