XRP on the eve of a breakthrough: ETF approval countdown, analysts predict the price will hit the $3 mark

As the key ETF deadline in October approaches, the Ripple (XRP) market is at a historic turning point. Polymarket data shows that the probability of XRP Spot ETF approval has surged from 64.6% in August to an astonishing 99%, sparking strong investor expectations for a breakthrough of the psychological barrier of 3 dollars. The final approval deadlines for six major issuers are concentrated in October, and the market is holding its breath for this regulatory decision that could fundamentally change the XRP ecosystem.

October ETF approval countdown: XRP investors face a decisive moment

The cryptocurrency market is focusing on the significant decision that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is about to make. The final approval deadlines for six major XRP Spot ETF issuers—21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, CoinShares, Grayscale, and WisdomTree—fall on October 2025, while Franklin Templeton's application has been extended to November 14.

It is especially noteworthy that the final approval deadline for the Grayscale XRP ETF is October 18. Market analysts generally believe that the SEC may adopt a strategy similar to that of Bitcoin ETFs, approving all applications on the same day to avoid giving any issuer a first-mover advantage. This means that all seven XRP ETFs may be approved for trading on October 18 or 19.

Market Confidence Indicator and Early ETF Liquidity Performance

Polymarket's prediction market data shows that the probability of XRP ETF being approved by the end of 2025 has reached 99%, significantly up from 64.6% in early August. This surge in confidence is primarily driven by the following factors:

· The successful launch of REX-Osprey XRP ETF (XRPR)

· Approval of the General Listing Standards (GLS) for Commodity Trust Shares

· The favorable outcome of the SEC lawsuit against Ripple, the court ruled that XRP does not constitute a security.

The first trading day of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF attracted a net inflow of $15 million, while Grayscale's digital large-cap ETF attracted $22 million during the same period, demonstrating strong market demand for cryptocurrency ETF products.

Bloomberg Industry Research Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented: "Their performance has surpassed the average ETF issuance, although it is still far behind Bitcoin ETFs. However, as the issuers, such results are already worth celebrating."

The Entry of Giants: The Key Role of BlackRock and Vanguard Group

The cryptocurrency ETF market landscape may be completely changed by the movements of two major asset management giants. BlackRock has not yet disclosed whether it plans to launch an XRP Spot ETF, but the market is closely watching the potential listing of its iShares XRP Trust.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have dominated the cryptocurrency ETF market. If BlackRock decides to launch an XRP ETF product, it could significantly drive the price of XRP, just as its Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs helped these two cryptocurrencies reach historical highs of $123,731 and $4,958 respectively in August 2025.

Another potential market catalyst is the policy shift of Vanguard, the world's second-largest ETF issuer. If the company decides to allow investors access to cryptocurrency ETFs, it could even launch its own XRP Spot ETF product, bringing significant inflow potential to the market.

Technical Analysis: XRP Price Key Support and Resistance Levels

(Source: Trading View)

On September 29, XRP is temporarily priced at $2.85, outperforming the overall market. From a technical perspective, traders are closely watching the following key price levels:

Support Level:

$2.7 (short-term key support)

2.5 USD (secondary support)

Resistance Level:

3 dollars (psychological barrier)

3.2 US dollars (mid-term resistance)

3.335 USD (strong resistance zone)

3.66 USD (historical highest price)

The price of XRP is currently at a critical technical turning point. A breakthrough at the psychological barrier of $3 will open up space for further upward movement, while a drop below $2.7 could trigger a deeper correction.

Multiple Catalysts and Scenario Analysis

The price trend of XRP will be influenced by multiple factors, mainly including:

Bullish Scenario:

· ETF products (BITW, GDLC, XRPR) report strong capital inflows

· BlackRock and Vanguard Group have decided to launch an XRP Spot ETF.

· Blue-chip companies are incorporating XRP into their financial reserve assets.

· Ripple successfully obtained a chartered bank license in the United States.

· The Senate passed the Market Structure Bill

· Ripple expands its market share in the global remittance market, challenging SWIFT's dominance.

The positive developments of these factors may drive XRP to break through the $3 barrier and advance towards $3.2 or even higher levels.

Bearish Scenario:

· The fund inflow of ETF products is below expectations or there is a net outflow.

· BlackRock and Vanguard Group abandon XRP ETF plans

· SEC delays or denies approval for XRP Spot ETF

· The advancement of crypto-friendly regulations is hindered

· Ripple's banking license application was rejected

· SWIFT successfully maintains its dominant position in the global remittance market.

These adverse factors may cause XRP to fall below the support level of 2.7 dollars, further dipping to the level of 2.5 dollars.

October will be a crucial month for XRP investors, as the ETF approval results, institutional participation, and regulatory developments will jointly determine whether XRP can break through the psychological barrier of 3 dollars and initiate a new wave of upward momentum.