Follow the trend, ETH continues to decline to 2825.$ETH In principle, we do not make predictions, respecting the market trend. Essentially, we are betting on the direction. Based on the original orders, we try to improve the win rate as much as possible, mainly focusing on position control and risk management. When the win rate is certain, we place high risk-reward ratio trades, avoiding short-term intraday trading as much as possible.

The Federal Reserve's shift to hawkishness + Tech Stocks bubble anxiety, why are gold, Bitcoin, and US stocks moving down in sync? A cross-asset "chain reaction" is unfolding. In mid-November, gold, cryptocurrencies, and the US stock market were all bound by the same string, falling together. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted over 1%, gold prices are approaching the $4,000 support level, and Bitcoin and Ethereum both declined by over 2%. By November 18, the decline had not stopped—gold fell for the fourth consecutive day, down 0.4%; Bitcoin dropped to $91,107, hitting a nearly 7-month low. **The real culprit is the Fed's hawkish turn** The market's collective panic stems from two main factors. First, Fed officials have been "hawkish," and market expectations for a 25 bps rate cut in December have been cut in half to 43%. This means the previously relied-upon rate cut rescue script may no longer apply. Second, the business logic of Tech Stocks is being questioned—those tech giants relying on massive debt to support AI-related capital expenditures are facing rising financing costs, with Amazon's bond issuance cooling being a clear sign. **Technical signals are already warning** If fundamentals are the reason for the decline, technical signals are also indicating trouble. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq have all broken below their 50-day moving averages, typically signaling a trend shift from upward to downward. More alarmingly, Bitcoin's 50-day moving average has also crossed below its 200-day moving average, forming the well-known "death cross" in technical charts. Technical analyst John Roque believes that the Nasdaq's decline is far from over, with potential losses expanding to 8%. BTSE Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei bluntly states that under the dual pressures of AI valuation doubts and uncertain rate cut prospects, further downside for Bitcoin is inevitable. **Gold trend: liquidity-driven anomalies** The logic behind gold's decline deserves a separate analysis. When the stock market incurs losses, capital flows shift—investors start liquidating gold positions to offset losses in other assets. Altavest, a futures brokerage, believes that in the short term, gold will be highly synchronized with stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets, with liquidity demand being the dominant factor. **Next steps: where are the tests?** Quaglini from Hex Trust points out that this correction may just be beginning. If the stock market continues to weaken, Bitcoin could easily retest the $70,000 support level. Short-term volatility in gold may continue to rise until liquidity tensions ease. Jeffrey Gundlach, Chief Investment Officer of DoubleLine Capital, offers a noteworthy suggestion: in an environment where asset prices are generally overvalued, portfolios should hold about 20% in cash to hedge against potential sharp pullbacks. The movements of gold, Bitcoin prices, and US stock indices reflect a market shift from blind optimism to cautious conservatism.