#宏观经济对加密市场影响 Looking at last night's market movement, a familiar feeling has surfaced in my mind. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the dot plot shows only one rate cut opportunity next year. I've seen the logic behind this signal many times before. In 2015, 2018, and 2022, every shift in economic expectations played out the same script—initially a rally on good news, followed by a pullback due to the gap between reality and expectations. The recent surge and pullback of BTC, ETH, and SOL are essentially a microcosm of this process. What’s truly worth pondering are the voices inside Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve. The phrase "stagflation risk" is heavy, and I heard similar statements in 2022. Back then, everyone was debating whether it would be a soft or hard landing. And guess what? The market made its own choice. Now, the labor market has become a decisive factor, which means macro uncertainty has not yet dissipated. The ceiling of the crypto market is actually determined by the ceiling of the real economy. Last night’s move by the ETH whale was quite interesting—holding steady with a floating profit of 29.17 million, then adding to their position to 120,000 ETH after the price dropped. This contrarian move often signals two possibilities in history: either big institutions are accumulating, or someone is trying to buy the dip before a larger decline. Either way, it shows that internal market disagreements still exist. The collapse of MicroStrategy’s stock price makes me think of a cycle. MSTR dropped from 543 to 184. This isn’t just a number issue; it’s a signal—strategic Bitcoin investments are cooling off in the current US stock market. Last year, some still chased after it; this year, it’s become a burden. That’s the most straightforward sign of changing market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index has eased from extreme fear to 29, which is actually a good sign. Not that the market will rebound, but that it has fallen to a level where panic subsides. History shows that real opportunities often appear when "nobody wants to come, but nobody is running away anymore." Macroeconomic pressures are still present, but market sentiment is consolidating. At this point, I’m more interested in who is quietly building positions rather than who is rushing to exit.

#易理华 Increase holdings by 1 billion USD $ETH , On the contrary, I am more certain of one thing: 99% of retail investors are about to give away their money again. To be blunt: In the past three months, as soon as Yili Hua started to show off high-profile, short ETH was basically the safest strategy. But just look at the community—you’ll see— As soon as this news broke, many people went all-in long on ETH. Why? Because they only saw four words: 👉 “Institutions Increasing Holdings” But I checked @EmberCN ’s data, and the truth is not romantic at all. 📉 Trend Research’s real situation: Started building positions in ETH at around $3,400 in early November Bought a total of 580,000 ETH Total cost approximately $1.72 billion Average cost: $3,208 Now, how much is ETH? 👉 $2,940 In other words: The paper loss is already $141 million. Even more brutal— They also borrowed 887 million USDT from Aave, Close to 2x leverage. Seeing this, many retail investors become even more excited: “Institutions dare to hold, what am I afraid of?” But the problem is 👇 ① Institutions can have unrealized losses, retail investors cannot be liquidated Trend Research manages over $10 billion USD+ This ETH position accounts for only about 17%. 👉 Even if ETH drops another 50% Their overall loss is only 8.5%. What about you? What percentage of your position is this? If it gets liquidated, can you still survive? ② Institutions can wait, retail investors cannot They: Build positions gradually over the past 2 months Never go all-in at once Have time, patience, and bullets Retail investors: See a tweet Go all-in at $2,940 The next day, it drops to $2,800 In the group, people start asking: “Is it going to fall further? Should I cut?” Institutions wait for the cycle, Retail investors wait for tomorrow. ③ Increasing holdings ≠ bottom signal History has taught you many times: In 2021, 519 Institutions called for increasing BTC holdings 👉 BTC dropped from $29,000 to $17,600 In 2022, Luna Do Kwon announced high-profile increase in BTC holdings 👉 Luna went to zero, BTC dropped to $15,500 Many times, Increasing holdings is not bottom-fishing, It’s narrative, marketing, and liquidity seeking. So what should retail investors do? I’ll give you three very practical suggestions 👇 1️⃣ First ask yourself 3 questions Is this all my savings? Can I hold if it drops another 30%? Can I wait 3–6 months? If any answer is negative, then don’t move. 2️⃣ Build gradually, not all at once For example, if you want to buy ETH with 100,000: 30% at current price Buy another 30% if it drops 10% Buy the remaining 40% if it drops another 10% At least, You are using “institutional methods”, Not “retail emotional trading.” 3️⃣ Set stop-loss orders For example, buy at $2,940: 👉 Exit unconditionally if it drops 15% (about $2,500) It’s not cowardice, It’s admitting you were wrong, Protecting your principal, waiting for real opportunities. One last message for you: Institutional increasing holdings is their game; Following along might just be their liquidity. See this clearly, And you are already more calm than 90% of the market.