Crypto Macro News and Global Policy Updates

The Middle East situation has taken a turn, with U.S. President Trump predicting that the Iran–U.S. conflict will end within 2 to 3 weeks, triggering a rebound in global markets. Asian stocks logged their strongest gains in months, while the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market also rose. Iran has expressed a willingness to end the conflict, and if the United Arab Emirates joins the fighting, it could affect oil prices. As market sentiment improves, the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs is expected to bring in new capital, driving the market trend higher.

Franklin Templeton announced on April 1 that it will acquire 250 Digital to expand its cryptocurrency investment business. 250 Digital primarily serves institutional investors and was founded by former CoinFund executives. This move is part of Franklin Templeton’s efforts to deepen its digital asset strategy.

Gate News message. On April 1, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that Iran launched multiple missile and drone attacks on Israel and U.S. military bases.

Gate News, April 1, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April has fallen to 0.5%, down sharply from 12.4% on March 23; the likelihood of a rate hike is virtually negligible. Meanwhile, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in April is 99.5%.

Crypto markets saw a rally with Bitcoin and Ether rising amidst fluctuating oil prices and comments from President Trump about the Iran war. While altcoins like Algorand surged, the broader market remains in a downtrend, with mixed signals in derivatives positioning.

New Hampshire has integrated Bitcoin into municipal bonds with a $100M bond backed by $150M in BTC. This overcollateralized strategy aims to enhance digital asset utility in public finance, offering stability and liquidity while avoiding taxpayer risk.

Gate News update: On April 1, the Arizona Digital Asset Reserve Bill is approaching the final voting stage. The bill would allow the state to hold the seized BTC and XRP instead of auctioning them off.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw $1.32 billion in net inflows in March, ending a streak of four months of outflows during a price drop. Bitcoin's price stabilized, marking a potential momentum shift, yet investors remain underwater on average.

Bitcoin ETFs have seen a return of inflows after a period of stagnation, indicating renewed interest from institutional investors despite a significant price drop. The slight decrease in total assets under management reflects resilience and a potential for market recovery.

An analyst at ING said that the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz could be a key factor driving a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar. It is still unclear whether the strait will re-open, and the U.S. Dollar Index falling back to the March 23 low of 99.0 needs a clearer timeline.

Gate News update: On April 1, the U.S. will release its March ADP employment report tonight at 20:15 (known as “the little nonfarm,” a leading indicator for nonfarm employment data), followed by the release of the U.S. February retail sales month-over-month rate (known as “terrible data,” reflecting the strength or weakness of the consumer market). The market will get the latest data on the U.S. labor market and consumer market, and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path may change accordingly.

Gate News update. On April 1, U.S. President Trump said he is strongly considering having the United States withdraw from NATO because NATO failed to join his war against Iran. Trump called NATO a “paper tiger” and said that having the United States withdraw from NATO is “not up for further discussion.”

New Hampshire plans to issue $100 million in Bitcoin-backed municipal bonds, rated Ba2 by Moody’s, indicating speculative-grade status. The bonds rely on Bitcoin collateral without state backing, highlighting a mix of crypto and traditional finance principles.

March 31 saw a sharp jump in the three major U.S. stock indexes, with the Dow surging by more than 1,125 points and posting its best single-day performance. However, the S&P 500 fell 5.09% for the month of March, the worst performance since 2022, and market confidence remained weak. The VIX volatility index stayed elevated, suggesting investors are still on high alert. Soaring oil prices weighed on Asian markets; in March, capital outflows totaled $52 billion, with Taiwan hit the hardest. As the April earnings reporting season approaches, the market’s outlook remains unclear.

On April 1, 2026, Trump’s remarks about withdrawing troops triggered a sharp sell-off in the crude oil market, and oil prices quickly fell. This shift not only affects the energy market, but also changes the pricing of global broad asset classes. The decline in crude oil has a dual impact on the liquidity environment in the crypto market and on mining costs; the market has begun to reassess the relationship between geopolitical risk and crypto assets. In the future, the market will be constrained by multiple structural risks, and industry competitiveness may shift toward improving technology and compliance capabilities.

Gate News message, April 1, Iran’s parliament issued a statement saying the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened. The Iranian side has not held any related negotiations, and will not hold such negotiations in the future.

The Bitcoin mining industry faces severe challenges: mining costs have surged to $88,000, while the Bitcoin price is about $68,000, leading to worsening losses for miners. As geopolitical risk and high oil prices continue to take their toll, hashrate keeps declining, and the resulting industry pressure has also triggered market instability. Many mining companies have begun transitioning to AI and high-performance computing to stay afloat.

Gate News reports that, on April 1, according to monitoring by BitcoinTreasuries.NET, the preferred stock STRC issued by Strategy yesterday raised funds that can purchase 2,724 bitcoins.

Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market rebounded on Wednesday after the United Arab Emirates urged the United Nations to use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about a war with Iran. The market reacted positively to signs of de-escalation and the U.S. troop withdrawal plan, with the price of Bitcoin rising by more than 1%.