Monetary Policy

Market sentiment is rising despite a 25% decline, signaling early accumulation behavior. Macro factors like easing policy and weaker dollar support altcoin recovery potential. Infrastructure and narrative-driven tokens may lead the next market phase. The crypto market has plunged into a

The Solana Policy Institute, a Washington-focused nonprofit launched in late 2025 to advance blockchain-specific legislative and regulatory strategy, has characterized the current U.S. crypto policy environment as entering a materially new phase – one defined by implementation rather than

The U.S. Department of Labor proposed a rule allowing fiduciaries to include alternative assets like crypto in 401(k) plans, providing legal protections if they follow defined evaluation processes. This marks a shift toward integrating digital assets cautiously into retirement investing.

Gate News message, on April 1, a Federal Reserve official, Mousalem, said the Federal Reserve can reduce its balance sheet through two paths: first, by reducing the supply of reserves; second, by lowering the demand for reserves.

Gate News reports that on April 1, the President of the St. Louis Fed, Mousalem, stated on Wednesday at an event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute in Washington that energy shocks related to the war with Iran will definitely impact overall inflation and may exert pressure on core prices. Mousalem said, "I expect increases in commodity prices to feed into overall inflation on a one-for-one basis, and there will be a period of high overall inflation." He added, "Core inflation will also be affected to some extent by pass-through; I will closely monitor the degree of pass-through and the correlation between the two."

Gate News message: On April 1, Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said it may be appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged for some period of time.

Gate News update: On April 1, Fed Governor Musalem and Fed Vice Chair Barr will deliver remarks one after another in about ten minutes.

Legislator Ko Ru-jün proposed adding Bitcoin and stablecoins to Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves to strengthen the country’s ability to deal with future risks. The governor of the central bank, Yang Chin-long, said that its position remains unchanged and that it still takes a cautious view of these digital assets, especially due to concerns about price volatility and liquidity risk. Central banks around the world generally do not want to hold digital assets, and in the short term Taiwan is unlikely to implement this proposal; it will need more in-depth discussion of how it relates to foreign exchange reserves.

Richmond Fed President Barkin said that high oil prices are viewed as a short-term disruption and that there is no sign of a noticeable reduction in consumer spending. He added that rate hikes may need to be strengthened if inflation expectations rise, and there is currently no indication of that; rate cuts depend on inflation easing or the labor market weakening.

The US 10-Year Treasury Yield has fallen nearly 4.95% over the past five days, while the US 20-Year Treasury Yield declined by around 3.72%. This marks a sharp reversal from recent highs, as yields had climbed earlier due to inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions. The trend has now flipped,

Gate News, April 1, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points in April has fallen to 0.5%, down sharply from 12.4% on March 23; the likelihood of a rate hike is virtually negligible. Meanwhile, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in April is 99.5%.

Gate News update: On April 1, the U.S. will release its March ADP employment report tonight at 20:15 (known as “the little nonfarm,” a leading indicator for nonfarm employment data), followed by the release of the U.S. February retail sales month-over-month rate (known as “terrible data,” reflecting the strength or weakness of the consumer market). The market will get the latest data on the U.S. labor market and consumer market, and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path may change accordingly.

Goldman Sachs analysts noted that although market volatility in interest rates has been severe since the war in Israel and Iran, the likelihood of rate hikes this year is low. Current supply shocks are limited, and the risk of inflation spillover is smaller. Monetary policy has also reduced the probability of further rate hikes.

Goldman Sachs analysts pointed out that since the Iran war, the U.S. federal funds rate has been highly volatile, but the likelihood of rate hikes in 2026 remains low. Currently, supply shocks are relatively small, the risk of inflation spillover is low, and the Federal Reserve will not tighten policy solely due to an oil shock.

Former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci pointed out that the CLARITY Act is running into obstacles, which could leave the 2026 crypto market facing long-term uncertainty. The bill is being blocked mainly due to political factors and resource depletion; in the short term, the regulatory framework will be difficult to implement, affecting market structure. However, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term outlook and believes its Future still has upside potential.

After U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows for seven consecutive trading days, they have recently switched to outflows, indicating that fund flows have become more cautious. Bitcoin’s price briefly fell below $70,000, reflecting weakness in market sentiment and liquidity. ETF outflows stem from investors re-evaluating the macro environment; amid expectations for high interest rates and geopolitical risks, investors’ risk appetite has declined. $70,000 has become a short-term line between bulls and bears, and technical indicators show that market confidence still needs to be restored.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s first systematic assessment of payment stablecoins finds that they could improve cross-border payment efficiency, but may also change the flow of reserves and monetary policy. Stablecoin regulation is governed by the GENIUS Act and may affect the Fed’s asset management policies; as the scale grows, regulation will become more stringent.

The Federal Reserve Board member Michael Barr warned that stablecoin reserve assets face money laundering and financial stability risks, emphasizing that reserve quality is crucial. Stablecoins have advantages in areas such as real-time cross-border payments, but they could pose dangers due to insufficient regulation. Pushing the “Lummis Act” will require issuers to formally register and hold equivalent reserves to strengthen market stability. The implementation of regulatory details will directly affect the development of the U.S. stablecoin market.

The Federal Reserve’s Schmid warned that rising energy prices will have a lasting impact on inflation. The inflation rate is already nearing 3%, and progress toward the 2% target has stalled. He emphasized that policy action is needed to address risks to inflation expectations, and market views on future interest rate movements have changed.

Warren Buffett warns that the financial system has vulnerabilities, emphasizing that close links between banks and non-bank institutions could lead to risk contagion. He says that financial stability should be the Federal Reserve’s top priority and also notes that market panic may cause investors to pull out quickly.