The market is "pricing in the risk of rate hikes," but it's far from reaching the stage of "a rate hike cycle has already begun."
All risk assets are pulling back, and the core issue is actually not sentiment, but rather macroeconomic conditions changing.
Oil prices have been sustained at elevated levels for the long term, inflation expectations are re-emerging, and this is the most damaging logic in the current market.
More importantly—the market is starting to re-price the possibility of rate hikes, rather than rate cuts.
Current rate expectations:
April rate hike 25bp probability: 12.4%
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